Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
